How do flight prices really change? We debunk the 7 most common myths

How to buy a flight ticket for the first time

We’ve been buying flight tickets and monitoring their prices every day for many years.

Yet we constantly come across ‘guaranteed’ tips on how to save money. Most of them, however, don’t work – or at least there is no evidence that they work reliably.

Of course , a flight price can change within a matter of minutes. But that doesn’t mean the airline is tracking you, penalising you for repeated searches, or showing you a higher price based on the type of computer you’re using.

Let’s take a look at the most common myths, why people believe them, and how flight prices actually work.

What actually has the biggest impact on flight prices?

Anonymous browsing or waiting for the ‘right’ time usually won’t bring the biggest savings.

What matters far more is:

  • when you fly
  • where you’re flying from
  • where exactly you’re flying to
  • whether you insist on a direct flight
  • how many people you’re searching for at once
  • whether you need luggage
  • how much transport from the airport costs
  • whether you’re booking when the price is really good

This sounds less appealing than a ‘secret VPN trick’, but in practice it works far more often.

If you just want a quick tip, here it is:

Feel free to use incognito mode, a VPN or cookies as a check. But base your strategy on the dates, the airport, your luggage and the final price of the whole trip.

Why do flight prices change so often?

Not all seats on a plane cost the same. The airline divides the seats into several ‘price tiers’ (fares).

  • a few seats on special offer 10 eur
  • a few seats at 100 eur
  • a few more seats at 130 eur
  • more at 170 eur
  • the last remaining seats, even more expensive

As soon as the cheapest price tier is no longer available, the system will offer the next one.

Prices may also vary depending on demand, departure date, season, competition or the sales market. Furthermore, modern systems are increasingly generating offers dynamically at the very moment you search for a specific flight.

That’s why you might see the same flight at a different price in the morning than in the evening.

1. Searching repeatedly will make the ticket more expensive. Does incognito mode help?

This is the most common myth about cheap flights.

You find a flight for 150 eur. A few hours later, you return to the site and it costs 180 eur.

The first reaction is obvious: “The website realised I was interested and deliberately raised the price for me.”

That’s why people are often advised to search for flights in incognito mode, clear their cookies or avoid opening the same flight multiple times unnecessarily.

It sounds logical. But in most cases, that’s not how it works.

The price of a flight can change within a matter of minutes, even without you searching for it repeatedly. The most common reasons are much simpler:

  • the last seats at the cheaper fare have sold out
  • the airline has changed the availability of individual fares
  • the price of one leg of a connecting journey has gone up
  • the combination of flights on offer has changed
  • you’re searching for more people than there are cheap seats left
  • The price originally displayed was no longer up to date

Because you’re checking the price yourself at that moment, it’s easy to get the impression that you’re the one responsible for the price increase.

In reality, however, the price has often changed for everyone.

The search engine may have been showing the old price

A lot of confusion arises with flight comparison sites and search engines.

These deal with a huge volume of prices, and not every price is verified entirely in real time. As a result, you may sometimes see an offer for a short while that is no longer actually available to buy.

A typical scenario:

  • the search engine finds a flight for 150 eur
  • it saves the result for a moment
  • in the meantime, the cheaper fare sells out
  • you can still see the original price in the results 150 eur
  • after clicking through or before payment, the price is checked again
  • the current price is now 180 eur

It feels like a last-minute price hike.

But by that point, the cheaper ticket was often no longer available to anyone. Not just to you.

Incognito mode: why doesn’t it work?

Incognito mode is often presented in this myth as a simple solution:

“If a website doesn’t recognise you, it won’t raise the price.”

But incognito mode doesn’t work miracles.

It opens a fresh window without any of your stored data. Typically, you’re not logged in, and the website won’t use cookies from your previous visit.

This can be useful as a test.

But it doesn’t mean you’ll automatically get a cheaper flight ticket.

The website can still see, for example:

  • where you’re connecting from
  • which country and language you have set
  • the currency you’re searching in
  • which route and dates you’re entering
  • how many passengers you’re searching for

Incognito mode therefore does not remove all the factors that might affect the price.

So why do you sometimes see a lower price in an incognito window?

That can happen.

However, a lower price in an incognito window does not in itself prove that the airline deliberately increased the price of your ticket in the normal window because of your previous search.

The difference could have arisen, for example, because:

  • you were logged in in the normal window
  • one window was set to a different currency or country
  • the regular window had a booking in progress
  • one window was displaying an older offer
  • the price was recalculated during a new search
  • Each window displayed a slightly different fare or service package

This is why you may see a lower price in incognito mode.

But you may just as easily see ahigher price.

How does this work in practice?

Feel free to use incognito mode if the price seems off.

It takes a minute and can sometimes help to check whether the website is still showing an old price, a booking in progress or other settings.

I wouldn’t expect miracles from it, though.

Incognito mode isn’t a trick for getting cheaper flights. It’s just a quick check in a clean window – to see what the actual current price of the flight is.

If you really want to save money, it makes more sense to try a different departure date, a different return date, a different airport or a price for a different number of passengers.

2. Flights are cheapest on Tuesday nights

They aren’t. There’s no universally best day or time to buy.

A special offer might appear on a Monday morning, a Thursday afternoon or at the weekend. Similarly, it could sell out at any time.

There is no rule that airlines always update their prices and fares at a specific time and day.

It is far more important to distinguish between two things:

  • the day you buy your ticket
  • the day you actually fly

Changing the departure date often has a significantly greater impact on the price. Moving your trip from Friday to Thursday or from Sunday to Monday can save you more than waiting for the supposedly ‘right’ moment to buy.

The season also plays a major role. A flight at the start of the summer holidays, over Christmas or around a major public holiday will be expensive regardless of whether you buy it at two o’clock in the morning on a Tuesday.

3. A VPN set to a different country will always show a cheaper flight

Not automatically. A VPN isn’t a magic button for cheap flights.

A VPN changes the IP address you’re connecting from. The website may therefore treat you as a visitor from a different country.

Prices do sometimes vary between different markets. This may be due to:

  • local promotions
  • a different currency
  • different pricing plans
  • payment fees
  • local competition
  • airline sales strategy

However, the sales market is not determined solely by the IP address.

The website may also take into account:

  • the country selected in the settings
  • currency
  • billing address
  • the country of issue of the payment card
  • loyalty account
  • language version used

That’s why switching on a VPN often doesn’t make any difference.

A different currency does not necessarily mean a lower price

On one version of the website, you might see a flight ticket priced in euros, whilst on another it’s in the local currency.

However, the final conversion also depends on:

  • the airline’s exchange rate
  • your bank’s exchange rate
  • the foreign currency payment fee
  • any currency conversion applied by the seller

A difference that looks significant on screen may disappear entirely once payment has been made.

Furthermore, some local offers require a payment card, address or telephone number from that country. You’ll only come across these restrictions when you go to pay.

Is it worth checking different countries?

Yes. I do it myself sometimes.

The myth about VPNs isn’t entirely a myth, but it only works in a very small number of specific cases (such as flights within India or Latin America).

You’ll often save more by changing your travel dates or departure airport than by changing your own IP address.

4. The earlier you buy your ticket, the cheaper it will be

That isn’t always true either.

The lowest price may not be available on the very day the airline starts selling tickets.

The airline may initially offer a standard fare and add a cheaper price later. It may launch a promotion, respond to competition or change the number of seats available in each fare category.

At the same time, however, it is risky to wait too long.

Prices usually rise, particularly when:

  • you have to travel on a specific date
  • you’re flying during the holidays or public holidays
  • there are few flights on the route
  • you need a direct flight
  • you’re travelling in a larger group

What about last-minute flights?

Don’t count on them for regular scheduled flights.

Shortly before departure, tickets are often bought by people who have to travel and are willing to pay more. The last remaining seats may therefore not be cheap.

Exceptions may include charter flights, travel agencies selling off remaining seats, or entire last-minute package holidays. However, this is a different sales model to that of a standard scheduled flight ticket.

There is no universal number of days or months when it’s always best to buy.

Waiting until the very last minute may not pay off. The aim is to find a price you’re happy with and buy the ticket when it suits your dates and conditions.

5. A low-cost airline is always the cheapest

It may be, but it may not.

Low-cost airlines sell the flight itself very cheaply and charge for additional services separately.

This is advantageous if you’re travelling with just a small rucksack. However, as soon as you need additional services, the ranking of offers may change.

Include the following in the price:

  • hand luggage
  • checked-in luggage
  • seat selection
  • any check-in at the airport
  • travel to and from the airport (low-cost airlines may fly to more remote airports, but this is no longer the norm)

At first glance, a flight for 25 eur might seem better value than one for 70 eur. However, if the cheaper flight lands tens of kilometres from the city and the transfer costs a further 30 eur, the difference almost disappears.

It’s also worth checking out our tips on transport from airports around the world, especially if you’re flying to an airport further from the city centre.

Low-cost is still often the best option

Low-cost airlines aren’t secretly expensive. On many European routes, they offer by far the best price and the most convenient direct connections.

The differences between traditional and low-cost airlines are becoming increasingly blurred, so low-cost carriers really do often tend to be the cheapest.

However, it’s important to bear in mind that this isn’t a universal rule, and it’s always worth comparing prices across several airlines.

6. It’s always cheapest to book directly with the airline

Not always. Buying directly is usually safer and simpler, but it may not be the cheapest option.

An online travel agency may offer a lower price, for example, thanks to:

  • its own discount
  • a smaller margin
  • a special fare
  • a different sales market

However, the difference may become apparent when a problem arises.

When booking through an intermediary, it can be more complicated to deal with:

  • cancelling a flight
  • changing the time
  • refunds
  • name corrections
  • changing your booking
  • additional services

The airline will often refer you back to the seller, as that is who you made the booking with.

How I make my decision

If the price difference is small, I buy directly from the airline.

If the travel agency is significantly cheaper, I check:

  • the final price, including fees
  • the reputation and availability of customer support
  • the terms and conditions for changes and refunds
  • baggage allowance
  • whether all flights are on a single booking

A lower price through a third-party seller may well be genuine. You just need to bear in mind that you may sometimes receive poorer after-sales service as a result.

7. When booking for several people, the price per person is always the same

This isn’t the case. Searching for a larger group may show a higher price for each passenger.

Imagine that:

  • in the cheapest fare, there are 2 seats left at 100 eur
  • the next fare costs 140 eur
  • you are searching for flights for 4 people

The booking system may offer all four of you the price 140 eur so that you are all in the same price bracket.

The airline hasn’t increased the price because you’re travelling as a group. There simply weren’t enough seats for everyone in the cheapest fare.

Is it worth splitting the booking?

First, compare the price per person, for part of the group, and for all passengers.

Sometimes, for example, you can buy two seats more cheaply and the other two at a higher price. However, split bookings have disadvantages:

  • passengers will receive different booking codes
  • changes may not be processed together
  • the group may not automatically be seated next to each other
  • the price of the second booking may increase between the first and second purchases

For families with children or complex connecting flights, I would carefully weigh up any potential savings against the risks.

Summary

When buying flight tickets, there is no single secret trick that works every time.

The most important thing is to know what constitutes a good price for a specific route, to compare similar offers, and not to be misled by a price that doesn’t include everything you’ll need during your journey.

To get an idea, you can also check out the latest special offers on our website. Don’t treat this as a magic list of all the cheapest flights in the world, but rather as a guide to what prices are realistically available right now.

Have you had any personal experience with incognito mode, a VPN or a sudden price hike on a flight ticket? Share your story in the comments below the article. Ideally, include the airline, route and the circumstances of your search. It’s precisely through specific examples that we can best explain what actually caused the price difference.

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